| 1. Identity statement | |
| Reference Type | Journal Article |
| Site | plutao.sid.inpe.br |
| Holder Code | isadg {BR SPINPE} ibi 8JMKD3MGPCW/3DT298S |
| Identifier | 8JMKD3MGP3W/3P5TDNA |
| Repository | sid.inpe.br/plutao/2017/06.21.20.41.41 (restricted access) |
| Last Update | 2017:06.23.13.03.39 (UTC) administrator |
| Metadata Repository | sid.inpe.br/plutao/2017/06.21.20.41.42 |
| Metadata Last Update | 2021:01.02.22.16.58 (UTC) administrator |
| DOI | 10.1002/joc.5010 |
| ISSN | 0899-8418 |
| Label | lattes: 4978912302419377 1 CoelhoFirpMaiaMacl:2017:ExFeEm |
| Citation Key | CoelhoFirpMaiaMacL:2017:ExFeEm |
| Title | Exploring the feasibility of empirical, dynamical and combined probabilistic rainy season onset forecasts for São Paulo, Brazil  |
| Year | 2017 |
| Month | ago. |
| Access Date | 2024, Apr. 20 |
| Type of Work | journal article |
| Secondary Type | PRE PI |
| Number of Files | 1 |
| Size | 863 KiB |
| 2. Context | |
| Author | 1 Coelho, Caio Augusto dos Santos 2 Firpo, Mári Andrea Feldman 3 Maia, Aline H. N. 4 MacLachlan, Craig |
| Group | 1 DIDOP-CGCPT-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR 2 DIDOP-CGCPT-INPE-MCTIC-GOV-BR |
| Affiliation | 1 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 2 Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE) 3 Empresa Brasileira de Pesquisa Agropecuária (EMBRAPA) 4 Met Office Hadley Centre |
| Author e-Mail Address | 1 caio.coelho@inpe.br 2 mari.firpo@inpe.br |
| Journal | International Journal of Climatology |
| Volume | 37 |
| Number | S1 |
| Pages | 398-411 |
| Secondary Mark | A1_GEOCIÊNCIAS A1_ENGENHARIAS_I A1_CIÊNCIAS_AMBIENTAIS A1_CIÊNCIAS_AGRÁRIAS_I A2_INTERDISCIPLINAR A2_BIODIVERSIDADE B1_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_I |
| History (UTC) | 2017-06-21 20:41:42 :: lattes -> administrator :: 2017-06-23 13:01:52 :: administrator -> lattes :: 2017 2017-12-05 13:52:34 :: lattes -> administrator :: 2017 2017-12-07 12:26:33 :: administrator -> lattes :: 2017 2017-12-11 11:09:42 :: lattes -> administrator :: 2017 2021-01-02 22:16:58 :: administrator -> simone :: 2017 |
| 3. Content and structure | |
| Is the master or a copy? | is the master |
| Content Stage | completed |
| Transferable | 1 |
| Content Type | External Contribution |
| Version Type | publisher |
| Abstract | This study investigates the feasibility and presents an assessment of probabilistic rainy season onset forecasts for São Paulo, Brazil, located in a region with a well-defined wet season from mid-austral spring (October) to austral autumn (March/April). The probabilistic forecasts were produced with (1) a simple empirical Cox-regression model using July Niño-3 index as predictor, (2) the dynamical coupled atmosphere-land-surface-ocean-sea-ice model used in the UK Met Office Global Seasonal Forecast System (GloSea5) and (3) a procedure that combines the empirical and dynamical model onset probabilistic forecasts. The probabilistic forecast assessment was performed over the 19962009 retrospective forecast period for the event rainy season onset earlier (or later) than the historical (mean) onset date. The three investigated approaches resulted in similar discrimination ability of around 80%, which represents the probability of the probabilistic forecasts correctly distinguishing earlier from a later than mean onsets, suggesting good potential for rainy season onset forecasts for São Paulo. The robustness of this assessment for an extended period (longer than 19962009) and for a region (20°S, 25°S, 45°W, 55°W) that includes the city of São Paulo was checked, reinforcing the validity of the obtained results at both local and regional scales. |
| Area | MET |
| Arrangement | urlib.net > BDMCI > Fonds > Produção anterior à 2021 > DIDOP > Exploring the feasibility... |
| doc Directory Content | access |
| source Directory Content | there are no files |
| agreement Directory Content | there are no files |
| 4. Conditions of access and use | |
| Language | en |
| Target File | coelho_exploring.pdf |
| Reader Group | administrator lattes |
| Visibility | shown |
| Archiving Policy | denypublisher denyfinaldraft |
| Read Permission | deny from all and allow from 150.163 |
| Update Permission | not transferred |
| 5. Allied materials | |
| Next Higher Units | 8JMKD3MGPCW/43SQKNE |
| Dissemination | WEBSCI; PORTALCAPES; COMPENDEX; SCOPUS. |
| Host Collection | dpi.inpe.br/plutao@80/2008/08.19.15.01 |
| 6. Notes | |
| Empty Fields | alternatejournal archivist callnumber copyholder copyright creatorhistory descriptionlevel e-mailaddress format isbn keywords lineage mark mirrorrepository nextedition notes orcid parameterlist parentrepositories previousedition previouslowerunit progress project resumeid rightsholder schedulinginformation secondarydate secondarykey session shorttitle sponsor subject tertiarymark tertiarytype url usergroup |
| 7. Description control | |
| e-Mail (login) | simone |
| update | |