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		<doi>10.1590/1809-4392201502225</doi>
		<issn>0044-5967</issn>
		<citationkey>LyraChouOliv:2016:SeAmBi</citationkey>
		<title>Sensitivity of the Amazon biome to high resolution climate change projections</title>
		<year>2016</year>
		<month>June</month>
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		<author>Lyra, André de Arruda,</author>
		<author>Chou, Sin Chan,</author>
		<author>Oliveira, Gilvan Sampaio de,</author>
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		<affiliation>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)</affiliation>
		<affiliation>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE)</affiliation>
		<electronicmailaddress>andre.lyra@cptec.inpe.br</electronicmailaddress>
		<electronicmailaddress>chou.sinchan@cptec.inpe.br</electronicmailaddress>
		<electronicmailaddress>gilvan.sampaio@inpe.br</electronicmailaddress>
		<journal>Acta Amazonica</journal>
		<volume>46</volume>
		<number>2</number>
		<pages>175-187</pages>
		<secondarymark>A2_PLANEJAMENTO_URBANO_E_REGIONAL_/_DEMOGRAFIA A2_INTERDISCIPLINAR A2_GEOGRAFIA A2_CIÊNCIAS_AMBIENTAIS B1_EDUCAÇÃO B2_SOCIOLOGIA B2_SAÚDE_COLETIVA B2_GEOCIÊNCIAS B2_ENGENHARIAS_III B2_ENGENHARIAS_II B2_CIÊNCIAS_AGRÁRIAS_I B2_BIODIVERSIDADE B2_ANTROPOLOGIA_/_ARQUEOLOGIA B3_ZOOTECNIA_/_RECURSOS_PESQUEIROS B3_QUÍMICA B3_MEDICINA_VETERINÁRIA B3_MEDICINA_II B3_MEDICINA_I B3_FARMÁCIA B3_ENGENHARIAS_I B3_EDUCAÇÃO_FÍSICA B3_ECONOMIA B3_CIÊNCIA_DE_ALIMENTOS B4_DIREITO B4_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_III B4_BIOTECNOLOGIA B5_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_II B5_CIÊNCIAS_BIOLÓGICAS_I C_ASTRONOMIA_/_FÍSICA</secondarymark>
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		<keywords>climate change, regional climate model, dynamic vegetation model.</keywords>
		<abstract>Despite the reduction in deforestation rate in recent years, the impact of global warming by itself can cause changes in vegetation cover. The objective of this work was to investigate the possible changes on the major Brazilian biome, the Amazon Rainforest, under different climate change scenarios. The dynamic vegetation models may simulate changes in vegetation distribution and the biogeochemical processes due to climate change. Initially, the Inland dynamic vegetation model was forced with initial and boundary conditions provided by CFSR and the Eta regional climate model driven by the historical simulation of HadGEM2-ES. These simulations were validated using the Santarem tower data. In the second part, we assess the impact of a future climate change on the Amazon biome by applying the Inland model forced with regional climate change projections. The projections show that some areas of rainforest in the Amazon region are replaced by deciduous forest type and grassland in RCP4.5 scenario and only by grassland in RCP8.5 scenario at the end of this century. The model indicates a reduction of approximately 9% in the area of tropical forest in RCP4.5 scenario and a further reduction in the RCP8.5 scenario of about 50% in the eastern region of Amazon. Although the increase of CO2 atmospheric concentration may favour the growth of trees, the projections of Eta-HadGEM2-ES show increase of temperature and reduction of rainfall in the Amazon region, which caused the forest degradation in these simulations.</abstract>
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		<language>en</language>
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